Why I'm short...

Where I think the market could go

The 38.2% retracement is this recent rally is coinciding with the SPY's prior key resistance, I think prices could pull back to that level and it would still be healthy.



The same thing is happening with the QQQQ, notice the divergence at the bottom of it's channel before it broke out.

IYR

This is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Real Estate Index. The chart has primary resistance at about 28.00 and also a longer term downtrend line coming down on that level too giving it more resistance b/c the trend lines are converging. It is a key level, and the stock is getting too extended for me to think that it will break it... at least without pulling back first. ---- To play a pullback you could go long SRS, it's 2x short this index. If there is a pullback, and IYR makes another attempt at breaking this key level of resistance, URE is 2x long this index. ---Here are some charts of IYR.




I also have a daily chart up to show the significance of the downtrend line....

JRJC

This one looks like it may find support at its prior resistance level. This will be the first test of this support around 8.75-9.00. If it bounces I would consider it bullish and consider getting long. If it breaks it may come down to its other trend line around 7.80. We are unsure at this point which prior resistance level we should expect to find support at. Feel free to leave comments on your opinion.

Trend Line 1-


Trend Line 2-

Open the flood gates...

Here is a stock ticker ZN. It has been building a long tight base for the past 2 years. It has recently broken out of its base and since then taken off. The reason I think this stock could have a lot of fire left is the volume, or lack of. The volume so far has been very thin and light, and if you look at the volume back in December (60 minute) when it was still in its base you'll notice how light and thin the volume was. Since then more volume has come in, but not much more and the stock has doubled. When you look at a smaller time frame like the 10 minute you'll see that volume is still very very light and when/if the the real volume comes in this think could really get going. Here are the 3 time frames I'm refering too.

Daily...


60 Minute...


10 Minute...

SMN

This one may try to fill its gap...

TSYS

This next chart that I want to analyze and watch because it has a very long base that has been formed over the past 8 years, and has been probing the breakout point of it's base more and more frequently in the past 6 months, and as of Friday has made new closing highs, above it's base. We must remember that the market governs all, and with it hanging on by a thin thread all longs must have their trigger finger ready by their sell buttons. That being said, with the current price being just above its breakout level, and the power that these bases can create, risk/reward is there imo.

First lets look at a weekly chart. You can see the base beginning all the way back in 2001.


Now taking a close look on the daily chart, you can see the upper range of the base has been tested 3 times recently, the third clearly breaking and closing above that same resistance line from the weekly chart.


Now looking even closer at the 15 minute. You can see that after that big gap it battled with that same resistance (still from the weekly) for about a week, stabilized itself on that level and is now attempting to push higher. To me, it all depends on the market itself from here, and if the market is able to stabilize and push higher, I think TSYS is a great play.

First Post

I still haven't figured out how I want to approach this blog, so I figured I would start with posting some ideas.


First, SRS has been building a nice base, and could be ready to go soon.



The Financials are on the verge of breaking down, and out of the range we've been in since November. This could spark an even bigger market breakdown, imo.



The RIFIN index is in a wedge/triangle that is barely resting above it's November lows, which were tested abouta month ago. Breaking to the downside of the wedge would put in a serious test and probable break of those lows,. .....FAZ would magnify that breakdown by 3x's to the upside, So I'll be watching that one.